Week 1
Thu, Sep 4
Cowboys @ Eagles — 8:20 PM (NBC). Eagles (over 42)
Look for the Eagles to continue their dominance over their division rivals, just like last season. They will look to control this game with their defense, but new faces all throughout the defense will need to step up. They should look for more balance between running/passing to preserve Barkley for the season and the Cowboys will look to shut down the run, the addition of DT Kenny Clark should help. This is Brian Schottenheimer’s first game as the Cowboys HC so don’t expect everything to go smoothly, there will be some inconsistency with the Cowboys which will allow the Eagles to take advantage. The Cowboys will be forced into third and longs throughout this game and expect Dak to have a lot of air yards. This will be a good test to see how George Pickens fits into their offense as the Eagles will look to shut down Lamb. If Pickens has a big night, expect this game to be close. If the Cowboys have trouble throwing the ball, they lack a good ground game to keep this close.
Fri, Sep 5 (São Paulo)
Chiefs vs Chargers — 8:00 PM (YouTube). Chargers? (Under 40)
This will be a tight game throughout, lot’s of back and forth jockeying for field position. Note this is a travel game for both sides (temp in the high 70’s with some humidity, but a night game) not too daunting and should not have too much of an impact outside of travel/player distractions in a foreign country. Both these coaches do well preparing their teams.
Chargers are looking to take down the division leader while the Chiefs are looking for a Super Bowl revenge tour. Typically Super Bowl losers have a worse season after the loss and the Chiefs have had 3 consecutive deep playoff runs so there may be some signs of aging.
The Chiefs lost talent and depth along the d-line and secondary. They used 3 of their first 4 picks in the draft to address this, but rookies take time to develop.
The best way to attack the Chargers will be through the air with departures of both their starting CBs and Bosa on the d-line.
If the Chargers can control the ball with the run game and put pressure on Mahomes, I expect them to come out with a close win. I expect Omarion Hampton to out touch Harris given that Harris missed the preseason with his eye injury.
The Chiefs will need to establish the run which may be hard to do against the Chargers which did well stopping the run last year. This will lead them to attack the Chargers in the passing game, but Chiefs are still looking for their wide receiver corps to improve. Expect Kelce and Worthy to be the ones to step up in this game.
The matchups between these two were close and low scoring last season, expect the same this year, unless each team takes advantage of the weak passing defenses and the game turns into a shootout.
Sun, Sep 7
Buccaneers @ Falcons — 1:00 PM (FOX) Falcons? (Under 47.5)
This will be a telling divisional matchup that will set the tone for the season for both sides. I expect the Buccaneers to rely on their defense and vertical passing game to win this, but if the Falcons come prepared to stop the passing game they can pull this one out. Ulbrich takes over the DC spot for the Falcons but he did not have as good of a defense when acting as the interim HC for the Jets last season. Both of these teams invested in their defense during the offseason to try to heal what ails them, the Bucs acquired Haason Reddick while the Falcons invested draft capital and free agents to bolster their d-line. The Buccaneers have a new OC in Josh Grizzard (promoted from passing game coordinator) so I expect the same vertical passing game from them, it will be interesting to see if it can still be executed as well as under Coen. I expect the Bucs defense to fluster the young Falcons QB and force him to his second and third reads. If he does a poor job getting to those options, I expect the Bucs to come out with the victory. I would not expect the same shootouts as last season given the emphasis on defensive improvement both these teams made in the offseason, but the game will still remain close.
Bengals @ Browns — 1:00 PM (FOX) Bengals (under 47.5)
The Bengals have Hendrickson signed and ready for week 1. I expect their passing game to dominate the Browns and lead them to victory. The Browns will be able to hang in the first half if they rely on their run game and are successful up the middle against a weak Bengals interior D-line. But I don’t expect them to keep up with the Bengals high volume passing game putting up points. Miles Garret will need to put the pressure on Barrows for the Browns to stay in this one. Expect quick passes to Chase Brown and short runs to keep Barrows from taking hits. This could become a low scoring affair given how these two teams performed last year. The new Bengals’ DC, Al Golden, will look to improve their defense. The team looks to build in the trenches and will look to stop the run. He uses the same 4-3 base defense which takes advantage of the personnel they already have, but keeps it simple so the players can focus on speed and intensity so I expect a vastly improved Bengal’s defense. The Browns have a new OC that is more in line with HC Stefanski’s concepts so expect the Browns to be able to execute better on offense, but eventually this season we will wonder when a change at QB will occur.
Dolphins @ Colts — 1:00 PM (CBS) Dolphins? (over 46.5)
If Achane is healthy and fully available, expect the Dolphins offense to work through him. Tua will need to throw quick passes which will lead to a lot of dump offs to Achane. But if Achane is not 100%, it will make it harder for him to get the ball out quickly, putting Tua at risk. There probably will be some snap count for Achane considering the time he has missed. Hopefully Dolphin’s investment in the o-line pays off to keep Tua healthy this season. The Dolphins defense did well against the run last year and hope to shut down Jonathan Taylor. They will tes Daniel Jones’ ability to beat them with his arm. The Colts will need the defense to win them games and if Achane does not play, then they have a good chance. They invested heavily into the defense so this matchup will be a good test to which team executed better in the offseason, the Dolphins with their o-line vs the Colts revamped Colts defense. The new complex schemes the Colts defense will run may lead to some gaps/miscues this early in the season so expect the Dolphins to take advantage. This game could turn into a shootout if Dan Jones can execute Steichen’s offense well against the Dolphins. Otherwise, the Dolphins should be prepared well enough to take care of the Colts.
Panthers @ Jaguars — 1:00 PM (FOX) Jaguars (over 46.5)
This will be a fun game to watch for two up and coming teams. We will see if Bryce Young can continue to develop based on how well he performed at the end of last season. Coen steps in as a competent offensive minded head coach for the Jags, a much needed presence in Trevor Lawrence’s life. Campinile comes in as a first year DC for the Jags with style that looks to shut down the run and be aggressive/hard hitting. The Panthers will need to lean on the passing game to pull this one out, especially if Evero’s defense is historically bad as it was last year. The Panthers lost a lot of veteran leadership during the offseason so expect the youth to make some mistakes in this one. I expect the Jags to come out with the win.
Raiders @ Patriots — 1:00 PM (CBS) Raiders (under 44.0)
This should be a fun game to watch with new head coaches on both sides here. I expect Pete Carrol and his staff/team to pull out the win over Vrabel’s side. There is more talent and better prep from Carrol’s team. I expect this to be a good learning game for Maye and I expect Carrrol to take advantage of the young QB by forcing some errant throws which will be the difference in this matchup. It will be exciting to see Chip Kelly’s return to the NFL and how this team’s offense executes with Ashton Jeanty in the backfield. The Patriots look to the past to rebuild their future with Vrabel and McDaniels back at the helm, but this roster will need time to develop.
Cardinals @ Saints — 1:00 PM (CBS) Cardinals (under 43.5)
I don’t expect much for the Saints this season, they may be playing for the #1 pick to get the next Manning. The Cardinals should be able to lean on their defense to stop the Saints and whatever they can put up with Murray/McBride/Conner will be enough to win this. Not an exciting game to watch. The Cardinals invested heavily in revamping their trenches from a coaching and roster standpoint. Expect them to dominate this aspect of the game which will lead to an excellent run game and havoc in the Saints backfield. The Saints are in the midst of a full rebuild so it will be interesting to see the product they put on the field.
Steelers @ Jets — 1:00 PM (CBS) Jets (under 38)
This will be a battle of defense and field position. Look for each offense to mitigate risks and protect the ball. Lots of hand offs for less than 3 yards in this game. Hopefully J. Fields can break a run for more than 10 yards to get the Jets a first down. The Jets look to see the new regime headed by Aaron Glenn to turn things around in NY. They invested in the trenches and have plenty of young talent on both sides of the ball. Arthur Smith will hope that Aaron Rodger’s can improve the Steelers offense and get the ball moving downfield. I’m sure the storyline of these organizations switching QB’s with each other during the off season will be played out by kickoff and just annoying throughout the broadcast. I expect the Jets to win this game in a low scoring matchup as long as they do not turn the ball over in their own half of the field.
Giants @ Commanders — 1:00 PM (FOX) Commanders (over 45.5)
The Commanders will look to build upon Daniels great rookie season. They will look to run the ball more and control the pace of the game. This should be easy to do against a questionable Giants team. The Giants d-line should create problems for Daniel’s but if the Commanders get the run game going, it should not be a problem. The Giants invested heavily in improving their secondary and d-line which is surprising since their run defense is what needs the most improvement from last season. How long will Daboll be the HC of the Giants will be the question after this game if it ends in a blowout. The Commanders invested in veterans and the d-line during the offseason as the defense was an area of weakness for them last year. Hopefully the changes will pay off and the unit can perform much better. Last season the Giants vs Commanders games ended very closely and this year may not be different if the Commanders do not make the defensive improvements.
Titans @ Broncos — 4:05 PM (FOX) Broncos (under 42)
Expect the Broncos to dominate every facet of this matchup. Sean Payton is an excellent game planner and expect him to put pressure on the young Cam Ward. This should be a good learning experience for him and there should be some garbage time yards/fantasy points for Cam Ward in this matchup. Expect Denver to control the pace of the game with the running game so they do not have to put too much pressure on Bo Nix. Titans invested in improving the o-line to protect their young QB, but did not make enough improvements on the defensive side of the ball to improve the unit. Expect teams to have their way with this defense during the season. The Broncos invested in their defense by signing Greenlaw and Hufunga away from the Niners.
49ers @ Seahawks — 4:05 PM (FOX) 49ers (under 43.5)
This will be a fun divisional rivalry matchup to watch. Seattle is looking to make improvements on the offense this year with Sam Darnold at QB. The Niners are looking for youth to step up on defense and offense. If Saleh’s defense can step up and shut down the run while creating havoc for Darnold, I expect the Niners to pull out the victory. There have been a lot of key departures on the Niners, offense and defense, so the young players will have a lot to prove. If they have issues, this can turn into a close matchup. Last season these teams split the series 1-1. Expect growth from the Seattle defense and a change in offensive stately with Kubrick as the new OC. They will look to install a similar offense as the Niners given his previous experience and Darnold as his QB. But this is also the offense the Niners have been practicing against all summer.
Lions @ Packers — 4:25 PM (CBS) Lions (under 48)
This is another great divisional matchup in the afternoon. The Lions are out to prove they can win with new coordinators on offense and defense, while the Packers want to unseat the division leader. The Packers invested heavily in the trenches on the o-line and d-line. But will Micah Parsons play? Epidural injections at the start of the season are not a good sign which will make it harder on the Packers defense to generate pressure. Expect the Lions to test Parsons and their defense. I expect the Lions to come away with the victory if Parsons is limited. Hutchinson is healthy and should make an impact in this game. I expect the Lions to be able to control this game with their defense.
Texans @ Rams — 4:25 PM (CBS) Texans? (under 43)
Stafford is expected to play Sunday, but the back issues are a concern. Expect quick passes and a heavy dose of the run game from the Rams in order to pull this one out. If the Texans can force 3rd and longs throughout the game, I do not expect Stafford to make all the long throws. In order to win this, expect the Texans to establish a better passing attack than they had last year with Stroud. Their new OC coupled with changes to the o-line and skill position players look to turn things around for the Texans offense. The Texans defense will look to stay in elite form this year and will look to shut down the Rams passing game with their pressure up front. This will be a painful day for Stafford if he does not get the ball out quick. The Rams can win this if Stafford’s back holds up and he can make all the throws.
Ravens @ Bills — 8:20 PM (NBC). Ravens? (over 51)
Another great matchup for Sunday Night Football. The Ravens took strides to improve their ailing pass defense from last year, even bringing Chuck Pagano out of retirement to help coach the secondary. This will probably start as a close game as neither team will be looking to make mistakes in the first half. But expect the game to open up in the second half with both sides looking to take shots down the field. The Ravens have a slightly better receiving corps than the Bills, but Josh Allen loves playing the hero and he will test the Ravens secondary. This game will likely end with the last possession winning the game.
Mon, Sep 8
Vikings @ Bears — 8:15 PM (ABC/ESPN). Vikings (under 44)
Will the young Vikings QB step up and lead his team to victory or will the new regime in Chicago turn the team around. I expect Flowers to have a good game plan to disrupt Caleb Williams which will be the difference in this game. I expect the Vikings to pull away with the game in the 3rd quarter and grind out the clock through the running game to win it. Expect some 4th quarter carries with Jordan Mason to ice this game.